The Merger Conundrum: Atiku, Obi, and the Future of Nigerian Politics
The revived political courtship between Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) is not a new development, Silhotgists Media has learnt. However, its timing and purpose have raised questions. When Prof. Pat Utomi hinted at the possibility of opposition parties forming a mega party to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC), many thought he was fantasizing. But the political economist emphasized the importance of opposition leaders forming a united front to rescue the country from the APC’s grip.
The recent political rapprochement between Atiku and Obi did not come as a surprise to many Nigerians. Obi initiated the political overtures after Atiku called for the merger of opposition parties. He also met separately with Sule Lamido and Bukola Saraki, both former governors and stalwarts of the PDP. The series of meetings, which came in quick succession, is believed to be part of an upcoming strategic alliance ahead of the 2027 general elections. Atiku and Obi have a history of collaboration, having worked together when Obi was in the PDP and as Atiku’s running mate in the 2019 general elections.
The Merger Conundrum: Atiku, Obi, and the Future of Nigerian Politics
Chief spokesman of Obi’s Presidential Campaign Organisation, Yunusa Tanko, explained that the closed-door meeting with PDP leaders centered on how to rescue the country from the misrule of the APC. Atiku, in a recent interview with BBC Hausa Service, hinted at a possible alliance when he said that if the PDP decided in 2027 that it was the Southeast’s turn to field the presidential candidate and selected Obi, he would readily offer his support. However, shortly after declaring his conditional support for Obi, Atiku also declared that he had not relinquished his presidential ambition.
The APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, stated that both Atiku and Obi are united by their desperation to occupy the presidential seat. Bayo Onanuga, special adviser on information and strategy to the President, said that Obi’s return to the PDP would not be surprising, given his reputation as a political nomad. However, the likelihood of Obi returning to the PDP or a merger between LP and PDP is still uncertain. Another puzzle is whether Atiku and Obi can abandon their respective parties to form or adopt another one if the merger becomes impossible, and who will be the presidential candidate of the new party.
Feelers from both PDP and LP leaders indicate that most members are not enthusiastic about a merger, preferring an alliance that will allow them to retain their structures and identities. Some LP leaders have ruled out subsuming the party under the PDP, citing ideological differences. The national chairman of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero, denied knowledge of the LP merger talk with the PDP. Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the PDP, Ibrahim Abdullahi, said the discussion between Atiku and Obi was about fostering a working relationship in the form of an alliance, not a merger.
Nigerians are waiting to see how this political marriage of convenience will bring the desired result of defeating the APC in the 2027 general election. There are those who think that President Tinubu’s political machinery and the APC’s stronghold on power should not be underestimated. The APC has a robust political structure and an intimidating war chest, which would make it difficult for any opposition alliance to dislodge it from power. Another issue that might hinder the planned merger from becoming a reality is the choice of who becomes the presidential candidate from such a merger.
Atiku has served as vice president of Nigeria twice and has a vast political network and experience. Some analysts have reasoned that Atiku may not accept a running mate position, especially to the former Anambra governor, who only became governor after Atiku had served his two terms as vice president. The question on the lips of many political observers is whether Obi will accept a running mate position to Atiku, considering his reputation as a presidential aspirant. Obi’s supporters may feel betrayed if he accepts a running mate position, especially after he has gained wide acceptance among youths and across sections of Nigerians.
President of Northern Consensus Movement (NCM), Dr. Awwal Aliyu Abdullahi, said there is nothing wrong with the timing of the visits, noting that there are rooms for political alignment and realignment, especially when an election approaches. He said it is natural for political parties to align and realign towards winning elections, noting that it is equally natural for candidates or political players to visit each other, discuss politics, and see how they can come together as one team to work towards dislodging another political party.
National Coordinator, Coalition of the Northern Groups (CNG), Jamilu Aliyu Charanchi, said the most important thing right now is for Nigerians to make a right choice.
